I’m AAABettor. I have been a long time active sports bettor. I started out following other tipsters, and have learnt a lot from several of good tipsters out there. Also learnt what services to avoid. I have a background from statistical modelling for finance. I started out modelling football scores mostly for fun. I did not think my models would be good enough to generate long term profits. But I was wrong. It turns out that it is very much possible to gain an edge, even in big leagues like English Premier League. The only drawback betting such big leagues is that you (on average) have to bet no later than the day before kickoff. For smaller leagues, this would not be possible due to liquidity or bookmakers restricting you, but for big leagues like EPL these factors are not an issue.
My approach to betting is ‘model based, but event driven’. I always start by calculating the ‘fair’ odds based on historic performance and team strength. Then I adjust this number for the current situation, adjusting for factors like injuries, suspensions, expected player rotation, motivation, weather, rest days and so on. Finally comes the most interesting part, which is the head-to-head analysis of the two teams up against another.
AAABetBot | Bot Link
Currently there are spaces available on the AAABetBot. Join at the link above and select /buypoints to add credits to your account.
ROI is currently at 6.8% through 1032 tips with all tips recorded at the actual price I received at a small set of bookmakers, making the recorded results easily accessible and possible to improve upon with access to a larger range of bookmakers. I also record all Pinnacle closing prices and calculate the vig-adjusted CLV (closing line value). This is much more statistically significant than the actual results, and goes a long way to prove that the model is working. My CLV currently stands at 3.3%. Actual results are expected to be somewhat higher than CLV, which makes the current ROI of ~5% achievable in the long run.
Below are tables with my results since I started tracking in 2020. Every bet made can also be found here.
Bookmakers used for recording prices – Pinnacle, Bet365, Betfair exchange, William hill, Unibet, Betsson group, Coolbet.
When are bets sent – no regular time schedule. Most bets will be sent during my thorough analysis of the coming gameweek, 2-3 days before the match. However, some bets will be sent earlier, for example a bet for the next gameweek may be sent during or right after a match if something significant happens in that match. Also, if some piece of news becomes available a tip will be sent immediately.
Odds Recording – when markets are liquid at pinnacle or betfair exchange with high limits, prices will be recorded at the best price available at those outlets. When sending earlier selections that could be more price sensitive or unavailable at pinnacle yet then bets will be recorded at the 2nd best price.
Tipping Volume– loosely based around a 100pt average monthly turnover (around 50 tips) on the main service. There will be additional bets for those opting in (see below).
Price – flat rate of £7.50 per point
There are 4 groups that are outlined below.
1) Model based tips (default group that everyone is a part of) – for those in this group only, the tips received will only be ones that are based on my model. These should be available to bet at Asian markets (pinnacle prices primarily) or exchanges, as well as soft books. As most of these bets will not be very time sensitive, best price can often be achieved by using the exchange. But having access to a few bookies as well would be helpful.
2) All bets – by default you receive all the tips above, but you also have access to all the bets I personally make. These are not going through the same rigorous model based process, but are bets I make based on other inputs and models. Results here may actually be higher, as many of them are from smaller leagues, but will depend on quick bet placing, and access to several bookies.
3) Bet365Exclusive – specific bets that require a bet365 account. On the results spreadsheet the bet365 bets will be recorded on a separate sheet. bet365 offer a very good promotion, where they pay out football bets when one team is leading with 2 goals. This adds great value, and should be used if you have a bet365 account. And it is highly recommended you enter this group if you have an active account.
Read more about the long running promotion here.
4) All Comments – unrelated to tips. If wanting to receive comments about the bets and summaries of how matches have gone you can receive this feedback through this group. If wanting as few alerts as possible, you can ignore this option.
As mentioned, all will receive Model based tips, but you can only join either one or the other remaining groups dependent on your own situation.
Instructions for joining groups
1) To start type /help – this will bring up all the commands and you will see the group options at the bottom.
2) Next click the /listgroups option to see the group options available to you (allbets, bet365exclusive & allcomments).
3) Then you need to select the /joingroup option and simply type in the name of the group you wish to be a part of (I.e. ‘allbets’). If ever wanting to leave this group you do the reverse by selecting the /leavegroup option and typing out (‘allbets’).
The option to follow live bets is now available to bet on the bot.
1) The live bets option is available to toggle on/off. To turn live bets on (default is off) – please type /livebets and you should get a notification stating, “you will now receive live tips!”. You can equally turn this off at any time with the same command.
2) You’ll only receive the tip if you select the live play within a given timeframe. You’ll receive a notification via telegram stating that a tip has been sent. The tip is then hidden in a box. If you click on the tip it opens the box and the details of the tip are revealed, and your account has received the tip
3) If after 60-120 seconds (server checks once a minute) you have not opened the tip, you’ll receive a notification stating that several minutes have now passed and to open the tip at your own risk. By this point its likely odds availability may have been compromised so you’ll receive fair warning of that. At this stage you can still open the tip.
4) Between 5-6 minutes after the tip has been sent, the tip will expire and will show up in text as “Live Tip Expired”. When this is the case, you’ll have not received the live bet and your credits will not be affected
5) Prices will be based on the betfair exchange and resulting will adjust for the 2% commission. So, a 1.5pt win at evens will take away 1.47pts from your account only.
– Prices will be based on the betfair exchange. There’s no guarantee that the prices sent will be available at softer books.
– Credits will not be adjusted for those are unable to bet exact price. Sometimes the odds will be at a better price than you bet, others worse, this is the nature of the volatility of odds in live betting. If a subscriber is fast in opening the tip where possible, then it should be easy to match the recorded results in the long term.
You can get in touch with ME about all bot related enquiries to my email – firstname.lastname@example.org or on twitter @AAABettor.