How much of a bankroll do you need to follow one of our most statistically consistent tipsters? In this post, we put OldGuy record through the same simulation model used in the rest of the series — to give you full transparency on risk, drawdowns, and what to expect long-term.
🎯 OldGuy Betting Style
OldGuy is a tennis tipster who focuses on smart selections at fair prices. Most of his bets come in around 2.03 odds, with a hit rate of 55.2% — a powerful combination that gives him an impressive long-term ROI of 12%.
His staking is steady too: averaging 1.8pts per bet, and always keeping risk sensible.
Over his full public sample of 710 bets, OldGuy has delivered 153pts profit, and we’ve now simulated his results to assess risk and worst-case variance.
📉 Drawdown Modelling: Full Sample (710 bets)
We ran 15 simulations based on OldGuy’s metrics — using his actual ROI, hit rate, average odds and staking profile. Here’s what we found:
- 📉 5/15 simulations had a drawdown worse than 30pts
- ⚠️ 1/15 simulations had a worst-case drawdown of 53pts
- ✅ The other 10 simulations saw smaller, smoother runs of variance
From this, we recommend a 60pt bankroll as a reliable baseline. It comfortably covers even extreme events — and allows you to follow OldGuy without overexposing yourself during rare downswings.
📆 OldGuy: One-Season Snapshot (420 Bets)
OldGuy averages around 35 bets per month, so we ran a simulation using a typical 1-year sample to understand what a follower might realistically experience in their first season.
🔎 Key Insights from the 1-Year Simulation:
💰 Profit: +90.7pts
That’s over 7.5pts/month — a solid, consistent return.
🎯 Hit Rate: 55.2%
More than half of all bets win — which helps smooth out losing runs.
📉 Typical Max Drawdown: ~25pts
That means a follower might hit a losing patch of around 25pts — but the 60pt bankroll easily absorbs this.
🚨 Worst-case dip observed: ~28pts
Even in the most unlucky run of simulations, the drawdown stayed under 30pts.
🔐 Chance of success being random?
Just 0.76% — which means there’s less than a 1-in-130 chance this level of profit came from luck.
📊 Risk vs Reward Ratio:
Profit is nearly 4x bigger than the drawdown — an excellent balance.
🛠️ Suggested Bankroll: 60pts
Our recommendation: 60pts is a sweet spot. It gives:
- ✅ Confidence to ride out inevitable short-term swings
- ✅ A sensible balance of risk and bankroll efficiency
- ✅ Consistency across both full-sample and one-year results
You’re protected even in the rare simulations with deep drawdowns — without tying up unnecessary capital.
🧠 Conclusion: Consistency You Can Trust
What stands out with OldGuy is the low-volatility profile. His profit is real, statistically significant, and repeatable — and it doesn’t require huge emotional resilience to follow.
His strategy results in a high hit rate and steady returns, giving him a similar variance profile to Bonz — which is particularly exciting given Bonz’s proven success on the platform.
For anyone seeking a high-ROI service without wild swings, OldGuy is one of the most trustworthy options on the platform.
👀 Up Next: STeeGolf – The High-Variance Wildcard
Next in the Bankroll Series, we turn to STeeGolf — a golf betting specialist known for explosive weekends and long-odds winners. With a much higher variance profile, we’ll explore what kind of bankroll is needed to ride the waves and unlock the upside.
Stay tuned — it’s a very different beast. 🏌️♂️💥
