Know the Game, Trust the Process
Golf is a unique beast in the betting world. It’s slow-burning, long-form, and prone to stretches that can test even the most composed bettor. But for those who understand the variance and size their bankrolls accordingly, the upside can be significant.
Simon (STeeGolf), our resident golf specialist, has now built up a strong year-plus record on Bet Bots — and today, we’re diving into the simulation data to get a better grasp on how to follow his tips with confidence.
📊 The Big Picture
With 1,100 bets in the sample, STeeGolf’s performance speaks for itself:
- ROI: 31%
- Hit Rate: 5.4%
- Avg. Odds: 24.07
- Avg. Stake: 0.9pts per leg (1.8pts per bet for each-way)
That hit rate might sound low to newer bettors, but it’s typical — and expected — for a golf strategy hunting big prices across outright and place markets.
STeeGolf Simulation Results (Full Sample – 1,100 Bets)
This section reflects STeeGolf’s real-world tipping record since he began sending bets publicly through Bet Bots in late 2023. Over this time, his service has built up a sample of 1,100 bets — which allows for meaningful statistical analysis of his performance and risk profile.
📈 Performance Snapshot
- Profit: +311.9pts
- Average Profit per Bet: 0.28pts
- T-Statistic: 1.898 → indicates statistical significance
- P-Value: 2.9% → there’s only a 1-in-34 chance these results came from luck
📉 Drawdown Profile
Simulations were run using the actual ROI, hit rate, and bet volume from this sample to understand what kind of drawdowns can realistically occur:
- Expected Max Drawdown (EMDD): 122pts
- Monte Carlo Average Max Drawdown (XMDD): 90.7pts
- Median Max Drawdown: 66.5pts
🧪 Drawdown Patterns Across Simulations
- In 4 out of 15 simulations, drawdowns exceeded 100pts
- In all 15 simulations, drawdowns reached 60pts or more
This paints a clear picture: golf betting is a game of long-term edges, not smooth week-to-week profit curves. Even with a statistically significant track record and impressive ROI, large dips are a feature — not a flaw — of betting on big-priced outright golf markets.
⚠️ STeeGolf Current Drawdown Context
As of writing, STeeGolf is in the midst of an 84pt drawdown — starting from the second week of May through to July. This isn’t a warning sign. In golf, these stretches are completely standard, and the data above shows they’re expected.
What matters is following with clarity and confidence — not reacting to temporary swings.
💼 Suggested Bankroll: 250 Units
To comfortably handle drawdowns of this nature — and continue staking smartly throughout — we recommend a 250-point bankroll.
That means:
- £10/pt = £2,500 total minimum bankroll allocation
If you’re not able to allocate this kind of structure behind your betting, it’s probably not the right time to follow. The swings are too big for an underfunded approach.
🔐 Final Thoughts
STeeGolf’s edge is clear, and his selections are consistently sharp — but golf is not a game of overnight riches. The volatility is real.
If you’re aligned with the long-term mindset and ready to ride the waves with a solid bank, STeeGolf offers one of the most exciting, high-upside options on the platform.
If you aren’t, there are plenty of steadier options in the Bet Bots lineup to suit your risk appetite.
🎯 Next up in the Bankroll Series: a completely different flavour — short-format, high-frequency betting with Dynamite Darts.
